The current oil price crisis is a stark reminder of why the Strait of Hormuz has long been considered the world’s most critical energy waterway, and why its closure since February 28 has been so devastating for global supply. The narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the broader ocean shipping network is the transit point for approximately one-fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and gas. With it closed and alternative export terminals under attack, Brent crude has climbed back toward $100 a barrel.
Iran struck merchant ships in and around the strait Thursday, including the Thai-registered Mayuree Naree, leaving three crew members trapped. Oman’s Mina Al Fahal terminal — one of the last alternative export routes — was cleared of all vessels after a neighboring port came under drone attack. Iraq halted all crude exports after tanker attacks, and Bahrain issued shelter-in-place orders.
Brent crude rose 9% Thursday to briefly touch $100.29 before settling at $98, up about 6%. West Texas Intermediate climbed 8.6% to $94.75. Oil has surged from $60 at the year’s start to a peak of $119, representing one of the fastest price increases in modern energy market history. Saudi Aramco warned of catastrophic market consequences.
The IEA released 400 million barrels of emergency crude from 32 member nations and the US contributed 172 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Iran warned of $200 oil. President Trump pledged to press ahead with military operations.
Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $71 per barrel. Deutsche Bank warned of stagflation risks. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.6%, South Korea’s Kospi declined 1.2%, and European gas prices climbed 7.7%.